The case for ZIMBABWE civil disobedience:Ivy Chiparaushe

Mugabe's crimes: options for now and the futureIt is important to realise the serious nature of Mugabe's crimes in attempting to predict his future behaviour. It is important to realise that the case against him and his henchman is one of cold blooded mass murders. Without judging them guilty before a formal trial, it is noteworthy that this is a crime that attracts the Capital punishment, hanging to death to be precise. The question that common sense should ask therefore is, would anyone usher themselves to the gallows by allowing a new dispensation which would try them. No one with the choice would willingly avail themselves to criminal proceedings of such a crime even if they were 100% sure of their innocence. The route that Mugabe decided to take is one with not many options, it is a one way street. Mugabe will never ever win an election freely and fairly and will always need to perform some trick to stay in power. Mugabe will forever be tainted black, not grey and definitely nothing nearer to off white, no deal will ever make him look a darker shade of grey. Even if he dies, his henchman will want to maintain the status-quo for as long as possible.There is no doubt that even if amnesty is promised now, it will not hold when the wheels have turned and they know it, for then the wheels would have turned rendering them vulnerable. It will always be necessary for Zanu pf to keep that threshold of power that prevents the wheels from turning. Most unfortunately, it is this threshold of power that's needed to change the country's fortunes. It is impossiblefor Zanu to allow the wheels to turn as it is certain to run over them. The only plausible alternative for them would be to claim asylum in fellow brothers' countries like Mengistu did . There is a big but with this route, the West will use trade and aid as strings for towing them to the Hague. The options certainly couldn't be fewer, i will leave Chiwengwa to research that route and how to go about it. Zimbabweans! It is time we woke up to the reality that Zanu PF will borrow as much time as our fear allows. Can Zimbabwe afford more time? will there be a country still?The myth of friends from the eastFor a while now i have wondered about the so-called friends from the east. I have wondered why they have left us sink so low. For if they were our friends, they would be ashamed and embarrassed to be friends with our rugs, ashamed enough to do something, embarrassed for us enough to cover our groins.I am left with no option but to surrender the use of that word . From now on, i will put quotes around that word , there surely is something weird about our friendship. I proceeded to interrogate the likelihood of significant volume trade with our "friends". Prior to this mess, Zimbabwean economy could be summed up into three main activities, Agriculture, Mining and Tourism.The world bank records shows china's GDP per capita at 5,345,Russia's at 14,743 giving our "friends" an average of US$10044. Britain and America are at $33,535, $45,790 respectively giving them an average of $39.000 thus four times that of our "friends", for those of you not familiar with these figures, the per capita gives an estimate indication of wealth generated per individual in the country's economy, it is vital to understand that tourist numbers arriving from respective countries are highly correlated to this figure, for it roughly determines how much each individual has as money to spend(disposable income) of course in addition to other factors like language, culture, in country economic variables etc. Our so called "friends" from the east, on average are so poor that they cannot generate us the desired volume of tourists. The critical fact is that our look east policy is misguided in respect of the Tourism Industry. Decent volumes of tourists will come from our "detractors", the West. Considering that a third of our forex earnings came from tourism, should we sacrifice the tourism industry for Mugabe's hatred for the west?. On to agriculture, we all know that Tesco, Sainsbary and the West generally were the biggest buyers of our all year round Agricultural produce like beans and beef, this is so because of higher disposable incomes that allow the choice of buying imported organic produce "special meat" from Zimbabwe, Kenya etc. Again our average "friend" from the east is still at the level where he has to make do with whatever is available, the basics sort of thing! its a bit like trying to sell oysters to Zimbabweans, if u know what they are that is! The people cant even afford their staple food, of course u can sell to a few in borrowdale, significant volumes are only wishful thinking, regardless of your advertising budget and even having the glorified Sharon Mugabe on the Job. Only the mining industry can thrive in the look east policy, that's if u are ignorant of the fact that, China recently overtook South Africa as the biggest producer of Gold, which we claim to have so much of. Of course it is fact that our "friends" have done rather well of late, it must be understood that this is because of improved trade relations with our "detractors". Our "friends" buy raw materials from us and our African brothers, process it into electrical goods and sell to our "detractors". Today every electrical goods shop in the UK stocks goods made in China. Its time Zimbabweans woke up to the reality of doom under Mugabe and his look east policy, Look east is Mugabe biased personal choice and not based on facts, figures and strategic thinking. Zimbabweans need to start processing their own raw materials and stop buying finished goods from our "friends". Success based on selling raw materials will forever be minimal. There is no successful economy that does not deal with our "detractors",The likelihood of Zimbabwe restoration under this policy is zero at least in the next 100years if not more.SADC : A question of Jurisdiction!In matters of resolving disputes, jurisdiction is a critical element. SADC has become a laughing stock because of lack of jurisdiction. Time has come when advising alone is not enough, because of lack of jurisdiction, they cannot tell Zanu PF what to do decisively. Hence under SADC's watch, hundreds of Zimbabweans will continue to be brutally murdered in highly organized state violence, millions of livelihoods will continue to be destroyed. " Zimbabwe is not a province of South Africa",Mbeki says, no jurisdiction by implication. "African solutions for African problems" he says the following morning, which is which? This is proper chuff from wheat, no wonder why they got rid of him. "no crisis in Zimbabwe" today, tomorrow calls for emergency summit, help me out here? my head is spinning. Zimbabweans have gone round and round in circles about people who clearly admit that they have no jurisdiction, and yet on the other hand claim to be able to solve the Zimbabwean crisis by virtue of being African. What is specifically African about a murder? What is an African solution to a murderer? Will Mbeki explain to my neighbour why she had to bury her son with no limbs? The African way i know goes about traditional healers trying to find out how and why a person has died?, even when they had full blown AIDS which we "all saw with our own eyes". In the African way, people are never buried without an explanation. Zimbabwe has been caught up between this jurisdiction grey area for the last 10years, during which everything has been lost. Ultimately, its all "makumbo enyoka", nothing! They will forever enjoy oysters and vodka in hotels pretending to be carving out an African solution. It is time we woke up to the reality that resolving disputes requires jurisdiction and we have outsourced to those without it.The dealIt doesn't take a political analyst to figure out that Mugabe is not sincere, Zanu pf has no intention of sharing power at all. In case you didn't know, the Home Affairs Ministry is responsible for Zimbabwe Republic Police, Registrar General (runs the elections) and Immigration. If the MDC got this ministry, it could win a presidential election, announce results promptly, Give visas to an unlimited number of foreign journalists and arrest perpetrators of political violence especially the born free "war veterans", all of which will not happen without it. For MDC and the people, this is what the deal is about, for Mugabe, this is a sure way disposing of himself and his party. Mugabe cannot afford to give the home affairs ministry away. It's the Zanu PF lifeline, It will only take a few arrests of militias to spill the beans and the party will be in disarray. Zanu pf will continue to use the Police to suppress dissents from within the party and external opponents by arresting, assaulting and dragging them through courts for trumped up charges. The police are an integral part of Zanu PF survival, without it, Zanu Pf is paralysed, will they paralyse themselves by surrendering it? . Even should they agree to some sort of arrangement, they will forever undermine the deal,. No significant investor will put their asserts on the line with Mugabe anywhere near power, he has proved himself far too untrustworthy. It is time we woke up to the reality that significant change means doom for Mugabe and Zanu pf has no intentions of allowing that to happen.This inclusive government is now clearly a pointless exercise even should signatures end up on dotted lines. This will only prolong the suffering of the people with a far less than mediocre response from financiers. It is time Tsvangirai realised that he is falsely giving hope for a still born union and sabotaging the country with this meandering. It is time Tsvangirai realised that best for Zimbabwe now is a wholesome uprooting of Zanu Pf not a deal of any sort. For how long?Today 2000 Zimbabweans die of preventable causes every week, our brothers and sisters are abused and killed in foreign land, our grandmothers and sisters are rapped and brutalised in rural areas, our children survive on roots, no schools and universities. Zimbabweans need to fully understand the magnitude of the monster among us. In addition, they need to own it, realise that no one else in the world feels nor should they feel greater ownership of Zimbabwe's destiny than them. The British can talk sanctions, the Africans can profess brotherly love until kingdom come, the fact remains, the country is burning. How long shall we allow Mugabe to play GOD in our lives, how long shall blood be spilled at every election, how long shall we stand in ques for food, water and our own money in the bank. how long shall we watch our civilisation disintegrate before our eyes, how long shall we watch our youths grow into uneducated criminals, how long shall we live in fear of Zanu PF, time has come to conquer fear, for we have seen the harvest of fear, more fear. it is time to hand this issue to where ultimate jurisdiction resides, the people! enough of brothers without jurisdiction, enough of outsourcing our problems to pipe smoking alcoholics, is it not a shame we bury our hopes with the godfather of dictators Muswati to help us, is it not a shame we bury our hopes in deemed chaff from wheat Mbeki to help us, they couldn't have him for themselves, why us? it is time the so-called civil societies raised their civil constituencies from the dead, all that should happen for us to say enough is enough has already happened, the time is now, now not tomorrow, not later, not when the sun sets, not at dawn, NOW is the time! Together we can! aluta continua!!!Ivy Chiparaushe is an independent Zimbabwean writer and can be contacted on ivychiparaushe@ymail.com